Thursday, May 24, 2007

Myth: John Cox Fails Because He's Not Included in Polling

Fringe presidential candidate John Cox and his paid bloggers are furiously pushing the notion that Cox isn't being successful in his race because he's simply not being included in polls.

Leaving aside the fact that all pollsters will include the name of a candidate if enough people volunteer it (usually as low as 12 responses guarantees placement on the poll and a MENTION in future polls) Cox simply isn't correct that he's being left out.

For example, he scored one percent (or thereabouts) in the latest Iowa Poll put on by the Des Moines Register, and he was actually mentioned. Here's what the pollster says:

I’d like to begin by mentioning the names of the candidates running for the Democratic and Republican nominations for president. For each name I read, please tell me if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable.Arizona Senator John McCain. New York Senator Hillary Clinton. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. California Congressman Duncan Hunter. Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd. Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback. Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Delaware Senator Joe Biden. Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson. Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore. Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel. Chicago businessman John Cox.
Granted, the poll has a +/- 4.9 percent margin of error, so technically, he could be polling at a theoretical negative 3.9 percent, or zero. But let's give him that.

What this means is that Cox cannot compete in polling, and does badly even when included. In this case, it means that a massive FOUR voters (or three, if they generously rounded up) in the sample of 401 polled for this survey voiced support for him.

As proof that Cox, if he had any support, would certainly register in national polls, check out this wording from a recent Gallup Organization poll:
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.
The fact is, very, very few people are "biting" once they hear the long, strange saga of John Cox, the egotistical millionaire who can't get no respect, and doesn't deserve any.


Anonymous said...

This is exactly right; from a different polling comp; they said if only a total 10 people in four different states would have said his name in any form, good, bad, indifferent; they would include him. And for the paid bloggers of cox; for you to spread the notion that pollsters don't allow for people to "name the candidate"; is just irresponsible & foolish; because they always do to get a more accurate accounting of what the public is really thinking. This is their life they can not afford to be wrong very often or they would not be around. As for the rest of the staff & john, putting forth the idea their is a conspiracy against you to reach the people is as well foolish. We already know you do not have a problem breaking the law however others do. And for them to do as you suggest would be breaking the law. Before any of you continue on think of your futures for once; you when this campaign is over will be finished in politics and possibly with anything else as well. When asked what you have done you will have to say "I was part of the staff for john cox who: sneaked, lied & manipulated our way into the Reagan Library, and sued the S.C. GOP to try to get in their also; no one will even give you the time of day anymore; as it should be.

Anonymous said...

Maybe if john got off his horse & on his knees more he might get somewhere.
Faith Playing Larger Role in 2008 Race

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Lately it seems all the leading presidential candidates are discussing their religious and moral beliefs -- even when they'd rather not. Indeed, seven years after George W. Bush won the presidency in part with a direct appeal to conservative religious voters -- even saying during a debate that Jesus Christ was his favorite philosopher -- the personal faith of candidates has become a very public part of the presidential campaign.